The first primaries are nine months away, but experts seem to agree on the likelihood of a presidential rematch in 2024. The possibility arises from Donald Trump’s campaign mastery of the intricacies of the Republican primaries, and from Joe Biden’s reading of the uncertain situation. Reservations among the public mostly concern age. Biden would be 82 years old upon taking office, 86 upon leaving; Trump, 78 and 82.
A more interesting question has to do with the kind of a campaign Biden might wage. Another way of thinking about the 2024 election is to think back to 1940, when Franklin Delano Roosevelt flouted tradition, not by running at an advanced age – he was only 58 – but by seeking an unprecedented third term in office. George Washington himself had served only two.