The Case for Nikki Haley

Trump is unelectable.

Economic Principals has long suspected the existence of long-term mood swings in the interpretations Americans place on their presidents, periods of bold presidential leadership alternating with long years dominated by caution. Thus, the courageous New Deal sensibility lasted from 1932 to 1952, (Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman), before giving way for forty years to the more cautious temperaments of Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, and George H.W. Bush).  Brief can-do reprises during the 1960s (John Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson) led to further sobering up.

The Republicans’ realism was followed, from 1992 to 2024, by expansive attempts to enforce the “Washington Consensus,” mostly by Democratic administrations.  Coping with the accidental presidency of Donald Trump meant, if you belief in such cycles, expecting the bold mood to continue until 2028 or even 2032, before a cautious spirit might return to the White House, to begin again coping with a changing world. 

Unfortunately, both Joe Biden and Donald Trump have chosen to employ the formidable resources at their disposal to run again, thus putting the future on hold. As Edward Luce wrote the other day in the Financial Times, “Whichever of the two parties dumped its front-runner would probably have next year’s voters sewn up.”

With seven weeks to go before the Iowa caucuses, that means Nikki Haley’s chances are rising. 

The Koch organization, Americans for Prosperity, a political network founded by billionaire midwestern industrialists Charles and David Koch, endorsed Haley last week, infusing her campaign with cash and political savvy. At a time when Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been consistently declining in polls of Republican voters, Haley has steadily risen, through Trump remains the front runner, even as the conviction has grown among party leaders that he would lose the election to Biden.

Iowa voters have been unpredictable in the past. If Haley gained share there against Trump, and narrowed the gap in New Hampshire, she could return to a primary in her home state of South Carolina with the wind at her back.  She served two terms as governor there. 

Biden’s candidacy, meanwhile, remains weighed down by concerns about age and efficacy. 

So, who is Nikki Haley?  For one thing, she is a woman. She identifies as “unapologetically pro-life,” but says she is glad the issue of abortion has been turned back to “the people,” thereby passing on an issue that otherwise might be used against her.

In Republican primaries, she can’t run as a moderate on immigration, foreign policy, or budget issues. If she gets past Trump to win the nomination, though, she will search for ways to broaden her appeal to independent voters. That much is standard political practice.  And if elected? Not even she knows today.

The case for Haley is becoming stronger. Those mood swings are real, but there is nothing mechanical about them. The argument for caution is growing stronger by the day. 

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It is Nobel week in Stockholm. SVT television publishes its six laureate profiles on demand today (these are especially good); science prize winners undertake a press conference Thursday at 09:30 Central European Time, too early to watch; and economics laureate Claudia Goldin describes her work Friday at 14:00 CET.  That is 10am in Boston.